Trading With The Flow!!!

Friends,

I take the liberty to start this new thread as a continuation to the wonderful old thread at TJ. Now that we are in the upswing, it is high time that we pay some attention to this method of trading. Many stocks have broken the last major pivot high and are just ripe for entering into trade. I am too raw to really point at the correct stocks but an attempt can be made to identify the stocks and trade this as per classic flow method.

Look forward to some active participation with lots of charts and technical discussions.

Happy flow trading

Bee

Great going,Bee………looking fwd to some great stuff here.

Saint

Following stocks look promising and are on the verge of a breakout, I think, and would like to be corrected if wrong.
SBI, ITC, L&T, Wipro, NTPC, SRF, HDFC, HDFC bank.

Following have already broken out and are on their way up (we have missed the bus here, I think) — Reliance, ONGC, Cairn.

Will scan some more later and put up here.

Please let me have some feed back. Tomorrow is a holiday :-)

Bee

Thankyou Saint Sir,

I am just checking out the stocks which have broken out from the last major pivot high made around Jan 7 and even in some cases in Feb if the PH was very pronounced. Am I on the right track?

Bee

Correct,Bee………but keep an eye on the Weekly as well.Will talk more about it tomorrow.Tired out for now.

Saint

Thankyou very much Saint,

Please take rest.

Have checked out with the weekly also. All the above stocks in line with the daily and the weekly and poised for a breakout and some have already broken out as indicated above.

Regards

Bee

Great Bee! I was thinking 2 days ago that we miss this thread here.

"Thanks for introducing this topic here Bee…"

Its a bit late too…I personally capitalised on many stocks in the start of this rally…all were broken out many weeks back. All the credits goes here too to our Saint sir for his 'Teach a man to fish' thread.

Now the doubt is…how to handle stocks which are….after this much rally in other stocks and nifty, certain stocks are just now about to break out from the weekly pivot, how we will handle this since they 'went to crack the pivot high with out any correction in its path'. That is, a vertical rally with many bullish bars from the bottom and finally breakout from the pivot high.

Special thanks to Bee,
TFL

Saint sir,

I have a doubt here to place the stops @ weekly low 1133-F after that flag breakout, when you have time, open you will look into it and clear my doubt?

Thank you,
TFL.

Thank you Pattel and TFL. Look forward to many charts here. Guess in order to have a correct perspective minimum of 9 months chart should be seen to have a clear view of the downturn, the lows and the upswing - daily and weekly.

This thread should have hundreds of charts. Will try to put up some today.

Bee

thanks bee for starting this thread… looking for some great posts..it could be nice if you could include some midcap stocks under your analysis…say voltas,rnrl,punjlloyd,pateleng,titan,yesbank…

thank you

bijo

Friends,

I will take up two examples to see, analyse and set the ball rolling here for some application of mind. Jindal steel as TFL has pointed out is already on the upswing and we have missed the bus here. It has been one of the few stocks which have been making higher PHs and PLs for quite some time now and this pattern is somewhat different from the majority of the stock patterns of last 9 months. Here probably we are a bit late for an entry. Proper entry here is left to be debated and ideas are welcome.

Next one is Voltas as per Bijo's request. This stock is making a pattern which most of the stock are making. This is poised to break the PH of Jan but is trading above 50 SMA. Clearly on the upswing. Aggressive strategy for entry here also can be debated.

Some stocks like Reliance have broken past Jan PH and are already trading above SMA 200 like Jindal steel. There also we can discuss entry strategy as RIL remains one of the best loved stocks for us.

My choice of SMAs and EMAs are personal preference and do not have much bearing in our analysis as per pivots in flow method.

Again with a prayer of gratitude to Saint, I hope, we embark on our journey to another exciting chapter of trading with the flow.

Bee

Thank you Bee for this wonderful thread. As mentioned by you some might have missed the Reliance but many have joined the rally. Reliance and Jindal are late for new comers and we have to wait for some correction. Voltas is nicely placed to give BO above PH and can be a candidate for purchase in next few days. I kept under watch. Even L&T give a will be a good entry.

Thanks Asha,

Check out some more stocks as likely candidates. I have listed a few in one of my posts above. Please note the trade here is of the shares which have to be taken for delivery in your demat account. Brokerage is normally much higher than what we pay for futures. We will hold these till a sell signal is generated by a pivot break by this method which may happen after many days or weeks even.This is just to remind people so that they do not get a rude shock when contract notes come in their mail box with seemingly high brokerage.

One interesting case is Ballarpur. It has just broken the last PH is ideally suited for an entry. It is an inexpensive share and is ideal for a test case.

Saint: Do we enter Ballarpur straightway or wait for a pull back to enter? What is the way to enter?

Bee

Thankyou very much Saint,

Please take rest.

Have checked out with the weekly also. All the above stocks in line with the daily and the weekly and poised for a breakout and some have already broken out as indicated above.

Regards

Bee

Very nice………….in the original thread,we had the Primary Uptrend on our side.All we needed was to buy pullbacks in the weekly which corresponded to mini downtrends on the daily and then buy the first break of pivot highs on the daily.We were basically trading the daily charts with a weekly perspective.

The difference now is that we are in a Primary Downtrend,which does not mean that we don't take advantage of this move……..but it's not as easy and as profittable as the last time.With an attitude of caution,let us catch the moves in many stocks,once again with daily charts and keeping in view the weekly.

This is not flow…..so take help of all the patterns,and its failures……profit taking startegies…….and as Bee had indicated,indicators if it helps you.Anything goes here except that we still follow the old rules:We try to cut short our losses,we try to ride our profits as much as possible,we don't go hunting for bottoms and tops,we don't anticipate,we don't get into hope mode whatever the situation………..here again,pivots play a huge role,but we take the help of whatever else that helps us to come to a decision.

More later………..great going,Bee,very nice!

Saint

Saint sir,

I have a doubt here to place the stops @ weekly low 1133-F after that flag breakout, when you have time, open you will look into it and clear my doubt?

Thank you,
TFL.

Hi TFL,

A warm welcome to you.

As far as Jindal Steel and Power is concerned,5 up bars on the daily is not the right time for an entry……..look for a pullback first.For example,in the latest pullback and take off,your entry is over the pivot high of 1278(high of Mar 27th),stop at 1133(pivot low on 31st Mar).For now,you wait for some sort of a pullback on the daily.

Saint

Saint sir,

Thank you for your reply. Actually I got this stock in bulk qty from my father and is holding from the IPO.
Now 90% of my portfolio value comes from Jindal S&P Ltd.
Looking to sell for diversification so I decided to extend my selling till the intermediate trend reversal happens.

Think you mis-interrupted my question, I will explain here.

Sir, I'm holding long. In weekly, I planned to hold till the reversal from this intermediate up-trend. So now looking at a weekly pivot low to book profits.
Currently I placed the stops at the same point you are seeing…1133. But the pivot low is not so convincing in the weekly but in daily its a good place to put stops. My question is…as far as I like to keep it till the intermediate up-trend breaks is there a need to place the stops at the red live shown in the image? or the non-convincing pivot formed in weekly 1133 is ok for stops? I raised this question because the pivot low is not a good one for me in weekly charts.

Put some light over it when you have some spare time.

Thanks alot,
TFL.

Thank you Bee for the initiative on the new intermediate Uptrend.
Will be looking forward for this thread to grow
Ashish

Bee,

Put Ballarpur Inds on your watchlist………it is sitting now at a weekly/monthly resistance point.Wait for a pullback to go long.Or wait for a close above resistance……for now,wait and watch.

Saint

Great work bee …and the support from Saint sir… Thank you for including my picks..

bijo

Thanks Bee for this thread

Regards
Satya

Thank you Saint for Ballarpur advice. Thanks Satya, Bijo, Ashish for your kind words.
Bee

Did anyone get on board on this upswing in any of the stocks?
Bee

Saint,

Ballarpur surged out of its resistance today and closed above it.
LT also jumped out of its Jan PH.
Wipro seems to be coming out of its minor pullback - maybe right time to enter?

Bee

PS: Seems like I am the only incessant chatterbox here. Where are the stalwarts, where are the ideas, all too busy :-(.
Come on friends put up something, some ideas, open new threads.

Keep chatterring,Bee….:)

Just give me 33mins more.

Saint

im just watching, no ideas , something must be wrong with me ….lol….

:( …Keep posting bee, great observations!

Regards,
MJ-

Great initiative Bee Sir…

Personally I missed the Intermed trend bus this time….couldnt latch on to anything. I guess was too busy with the 60min and intraday trades. Maybe was also waiting for the primary trend to turn bullish.

But will watch this space with keen interest. Some great insights from you and Saint Sir here.

Thanks,

Puneet

ABB:About to trigger a weekly reversal,probably tomorrow……The latest breakdown has failed in the weekly charts,and pivot highs are about to trigger.Strategy would be to do your Money Mgmt Math and then enter long with half or a third of the calculated size and to add after a daily pullback in place.

Saint

POWER GRID:Over 106 and visually confirmed over 109 is Primary Trend Reversal Territory……can it get there with one clean breakout?A wait and watch for now…..Entry over 102.5 on a breakout on daily charts.

Saint

RELIANCE CAPITAL:In an Intermed Uptrend,first entry with a third or half would have been at the 450-ish area……..Now we wait for a Pullback on the Daily Charts…..

Saint

ABAN OFFSHORE:The Daily Chart gives us an opportunity to get in long here with pivots nearby……No Entry if any monster gap up.Or else,as usual,over today's bar with stops at nearby pivots,adds over the pivot highs.

Saint

ROLTA:Just triggerring off an intermed uptrend today……..would be looking to get in if it gives us a few sideways bars or a mini pullback on the daily charts.

Saint

Careful on gung ho attitudes and entering full position sizes at these levels………strict stop loss points to be adhered.

Not to be forgotten that although we are in an intermed uptrend in many stocks,we are still within a larger Primary Downtrend so far……When things turn around,they can turn down fast.So,play it careful………..

Saint

Many thanks Saint,

Great charts and many new things

Bee

thank u saint sir……..

regards

neeraj

Most welcome,Neeraj/Bee….

Saint

ABG SHIPYARD:Looking to break out of weekly pivots and go to new highs,but daily has run up quite a bit…….Looking to capitalise on a breakout if there is one with small stops at mini pivots……

Saint

Thanks saint & great learning as usual from u:-)

Thank you Saint Sir,
Your explanation and advice is great. I have already bought some of the stocks mentioned in this thread. Your thread in TJ made me capable of understanding the intermediate trend and use the same this time with profit . Now your active guidance in this thread will help many more like me. Thank Bee for starting this thread.

Thank you sir and Bee for this thread

Regards
Satya

Thanks saint and Bee for the beautiful charts and explanations…

uthuman

As always,am personally in the trades put up here……..if not shall mention.

To keep track:
ABAN,ABB->Triggerred longs,both in a third of usual size.

The rest is still on watchlist.

Saint

Sir, I'm holding long. In weekly, I planned to hold till the reversal from this intermediate up-trend. So now looking at a weekly pivot low to book profits.
Currently I placed the stops at the same point you are seeing…1133. But the pivot low is not so convincing in the weekly but in daily its a good place to put stops. My question is…as far as I like to keep it till the intermediate up-trend breaks is there a need to place the stops at the red live shown in the image? or the non-convincing pivot formed in weekly 1133 is ok for stops? I raised this question because the pivot low is not a good one for me in weekly charts.

Put some light over it when you have some spare time.

Hi TFL,

Just an update on Jindal Steel and Power………..newer highs on the daily charts.Latest pivot lows is 1331.Weekly Pivot stands at 1132.

Your call now……My style of Trading:When this Daily Pivot breaks ,I am out……..And then I track the Daily Downtrend,sit on hands,and then get back in long once the daily uptrend is signalled.All this taking in view that this weekly uptrend holds.

Saint

So far,in ABB full……..raised stops to latest pivot low on the daily 485

ABAN:Now in 2/3rds,will enter last third on a breakout to new highs……..

Saint

Hi TFL,

Just an update on Jindal Steel and Power………..newer highs on the daily charts.Latest pivot lows is 1331.Weekly Pivot stands at 1132.

Your call now……My style of Trading:When this Daily Pivot breaks ,I am out……..And then I track the Daily Downtrend, sit on hands,and then get back in long once the daily uptrend is signalled.All this taking in view that this weekly uptrend holds.

Saint

Thank you Saint sir for the post at the right time.
Now I have a doubt.
Say,
We are in Monthly, Weekly & Daily Uptrend.
Then we went to Daily Downtrend and getting some pivot lows cracked in Daily charts.
After some days, we got a Weekly Pivot low cracked.
"Now we are in weekly down trend. But no daily pivots after the weekly pivot low breaks."
1. Will we go short there on the Weekly Pivot low Crack or here we only trade uptrends till monthly is in uptrend?

Thank you,
TFL.

Thanks Saint for the above posts

ABAN:Now in 2/3rds,will enter last third on a breakout to new highs……..

The next highs would be at around 617 or 849 area for Aban?

Bee

Keep posting everyone, following this thread post by post….

MJ

Thank you Saint sir for the post at the right time.
Now I have a doubt.
Say,
We are in Monthly, Weekly & Daily Uptrend.
Then we went to Daily Downtrend and getting some pivot lows cracked in Daily charts.
After some days, we got a Weekly Pivot low cracked.
"Now we are in weekly down trend. But no daily pivots after the weekly pivot low breaks."
1. Will we go short there on the Weekly Pivot low Crack or here we only trade uptrends till monthly is in uptrend?

Thank you,
TFL.

Hi TFL,

A great question as always………….In this thread,we do only the uptrends…..But let us stretch your question to both directions.

Weekly Uptrend,Daily Pullback…..Look to get long
Weekly Uptrend,Daily Uptrend……Raise stops to previous pivot lows,till they are hit.Once hit,you are out of the longs….But not in shorts as yet.
Weekly Uptrend,Daily Downtrend……Look to get long.
Weekly still in Uptrend,Daily downtrend continues…….Still sitting on hands.
Weekly Pivot Low Cracks,officially in Downtrend……Short the pivot low crack.
Weekly Downtrend,Daily Uptrend,…….Looking to short.
Weekly Downtrend,Daily Dntrend…….Adding all the while,Stop being brought down to prev Pivot highs.
Weekly in Downtrend,Daily breaking Pivots to the Up……….Again,exit all posns.

Once again,if weekly went on to start a new uptrend,then we are looking to Buy the Pivot breaks………….in short,we look to Buy in the Uptrends,Short during the Downtrends,and stay out of the rally within a downtrend,and the declines within an uptrend.

As for this thread,we are basically staying away from the derivatives side,and so long as shorts are not possible on an intermed basis,we can only trade the Intermed Uptrends,not the Downtrends :( :(

Unless you have an account big enough to manage the risks of at least 1lot in Derivatives Section………..then both sides can be played.

All the best!
Saint

Nice thread and Great Posts from Saint. Its a Golden Opportunity for us Guys with Saint here to guide us. I think most of us are Trading 60 min. successfully only because Saint was there to guide us through our learning phases, otherwise most of us would have walked away after few Bad trades.

Time is ripe for us now to make Big Killings through Daily Trends.

Thanks a Million once again to Saint

Thanks to Bee for starting this thread… And ofcourse thanking Saint for guiding us out of the woods.

Posting my findings(!) for the first time in this thread… so seniors pls bear with my mistakes and guide me and correct me with entry/stops…

here we go…
GVKPIL: Entered InterUT, made a pull back and onFriday crossed the PH…

IFCI : About to break the weekly pivot… stops at the double line…

Question : Can I enter now or wait for a mini pullback n enter with closer by stops?

INDHOTELS : In IntermedUT, and making a pullback… will go over above the near PH, probably with closer stops…

INIDIACEM : In intermedUT, making a pullback. Also consolidating in a triangle in daliy.

Will go long once it breaksout, with stops at recent PL.

IOB : In Intermed UT, made a pullback with low volume. Looks like a flag after a huge rise.

ISPATIND : Right on weekly resistance, though crossed it previously…

Can go long above the weekly resistance or wait for the previous PH on daily to be taken over?

MAHLIFE : same scenario as ispat.. same question…

Agreed on all,Senthil………Thanks a lot,my friend.

Great stuff.

Saint

Hello Saint,

Is my interpretation right? Check the charts.
Rolta, ABAN, Reliance Capital: All have hit the stop loss.

Kaiser.

List of stocks which have already broken PH or about to break PH on Weekly.
Stocks are with good volume activity (> 50L).

Arvind
Reliance Infra
Hindalco
IFCI
Reliance Cap
Tata Motors
Tata Steels
Nagarjuna Fert
Ispat Ind
Balramput Chini
Hind Constr
ICICI
JP asso
SAIL
UNITECH
Skumar
Sesa Goa
Axis
Bharti
Noida Toll
Welspun
NTPC
Yes Bank
IDFC
Sunzlon
Punj Lloyd
GVK Power
RCOM
RPL
GMR
IDEA
IndiaBulls Real
DLF
HDFC
RPOWER

Dear Saint,

Thank you for the reply you have posted "in detail" for my last query.
Now regarding the stock Jindal Steel and Power again…

Can we shift our stops to the area marked red that is 1474 as it seems to be a pivot in the daily chart posted above.

Thank you,
TFL.

Can someone post the charts for Crude Oil? Seems like we are close to a breakout…too bad I do not have daily charts…forgive me if this is not the right forum…

Just came upon the chart of EKC while going through the daily charts….looks like a perfect inverted Head & Shoulders pattern!! Spotted it a couple of days late, but I believe it still can give good profits….I'll be looking to enter tomorrow at the high of today's bar…

rishig38

Can someone post the charts for Crude Oil? Seems like we are close to a breakout…

Which crude chart are you looking for - Nymex or the one on MCX

Bhagyashree

Could not figure out where to post this chart. Thought this is the nearest fit without opening another thread. This is nifty futures daily chart - something to ponder.
Bee

Thanks Bee. Really a great finding. We should be prepared for that gap filling. Market is targetting that gap.

Thanks Asha. Lets see how things pan out.Will be interesting to watch.
Meanwhile trade well :-)
Bee

Thanks bee,

I found this threat very informative, bee if you can put some light on NTPC Weekly chart which i think created H&S pattern and now it is trading on support level i already have 75 qty at 183 would like to add some more.

your valuable advice would be highly appriciated

Regards
Bana0098

Bana,

Thankyou for your kind words. I do not trade patterns as such so will not be able to comment on your query. Generally as a long-term stock investor, I can say that wait for Nifty to hit the gap and then collect your favorite stocks. I did the same when Nifty hit its lowest in Oct 08. This gap filling, if it happens, will be a rare opportunity, as after this the Nifty will move further up along with stable Govt and India growth story.

Happy investing and trading

Bee

Taking the NF chart above, unfilled gap and Fib extension target and an irresistable urge to peek into future trend, am posting RIL cash daily chart below wherein the gap has already been filled and the script is on the upswing. RIL has huge weightage in Nifty - 12.82% as per the data published for May 09 on NSE site and now with free float system this weightage is projected to increase slightly above 14% though actual data is still awaited. Similar exercise can be done with all heavy scripts to check if the gap is filled or not. So the question arises - will the NF gap remain unfilled or will it reverse in near future to fill the gap and then move on its journey up???:-)

Bee

Great observation Bee sir…. Bang on target…

Regards,
Monk

Thanks Monk for your kind words. No "sir" for me please. Only Sir here is Saint and senior trader ST who has a cult following in miniflow in TJ. Excellent work done by him there.

I have tried to put my observations and hope the market pans out as predicted but it rarely does so. So take all this with a pinch of salt and trade the charts not the prediction.

Bee

Bee ,

Thanks for the kind words .Though I dont deserve them…

No "sir " title for me….ST is just fine….with "sir" I feel so guilty that I dont deserve it….on lighter note,I get the same feeling which a police constable will get if addressed as "Police Commissioner".

Smart_trade

Saint/seniors,
For trading the dailies - 'intermediate uptrend' style - keeping the weeklies as perspective, how many stocks do you keep a track of? How many do you look at on a daily basis and how many on weekends? I'm currently tracking around 100 stocks but sometimes it becomes difficult to keep track of all of them on a daily basis - which may lead to missed opportunities.

Would like to know how you go about it….

Deleted.
I booked Jindal Steel and Power Ltd when it cracked daily pivot(Huge bull bar in 60min).

I guess very few of us are into the Intermediate Uptrend style of trading…this thread is hungry for dialogue, and I request all who follow this style of trading to participate and provide their inputs to this thread…..

Came across this great looking chart during analysis, and wanted to share it with all and get your comments on whether it makes sense, or not…

Below is the ONGC weekly chart - two things jump out: 1. The classic Inverted H&S pattern and 2. The long-term trendline. If it gives a breakout from the H&S pattern and the TL, then the move should be sweet.

Saint/Seniors, request your feedback on the same….

Mihir.

WOW….excellent MVK…….nice …its on my list now :) looking forward fr more charts from you…..

Thanks Neeraj….lets see how this trade pans out.

Mihir.

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