Trading With The Flow!!!

Starting Ambush Charts Part 2 :)

This thread is only for the AMBUSH charts……..please post any chart relating to AMBUSH trades….so that we can have a collection of charts here…and we can all learn from this thread……..please treat it like a CHARTS LIBRARY….

u can all post the questions relating to charts here .. so that we can have all the doubts relating to charts solved here……

hoping for contribution from every 1 here …..

happy ambushing :)

regards
neeraj

SELF EXPLANATORY

u dun hav to take every trade…coz dis is nt 60 min flow…u get in …target achieved ..u trail sl….go home….

Excellent discussions in the first thread "Ambush Charts" by Everyone……….great views.All of them right from different viewpoints.Great stuff.

Saint

Dear Saint need your views also when market wake up not sit and we jump with extra confideence may
be a another thread on this …………as this thread is for Ambush charts …. wanted to learn about this from your huge exprience

Reards
Satya

Shall do,Satya

Saint

Monday Will be great for me going Out in week end Will Wait eagerly…….

Regard
Satya

Axis On Friday
17th July

Bear bar = Topping tail/resting bar/weak bar…..

And Missed to mark add point which took place before the breakout…

Below are the Ambush charts of Axis, Punj and RelCap cash.

This is just an effort to learn from ambush experts…..so do let me know wherever gone wrong.

Thanks,

Puneet

Here is the today's NF chart with my Ambush trades and mistakes. I have reviewed some of my mistakes and would request the seniors to kindly comment on the same.

My first trade was a short at break of PL of 10:00 candle. it was triggerred at 4422.

Observations:
it was a 50-50 trade. It was against the higher TF which were all bullish and we had gapped up. I would/should have avoided it. But my question here is, at times we see reversal coming and that is first captured in 5 min charts. Here also, the morning first candle was an inverted hammer and then a PL break, may be suggesting a reversal. But as we all know, it didnt. Any views on this please?

2nd trade:

It was a SAR of the first trade and went long at 4448 and added at 4461. However, I had placed my stop at 4445, below the B/O bar low of 4450.This was a bad mistake as the PL were far off. though the chart shows a low of 4445.55, but i gt a fil of 4445.My doubt here is about the adds. When we add, we are bascially increasing our capital at risk. Sometimes, new PLs are formed before ADDs and we can comfortably move our SLs there, but in certain cases(like today BNF), there are vertical moves and SLs cant be updated and we miss out on high moves?? I know that a 2 bar WRB rule is also available, but here we are in Ambush. How to tackle it?

3rd trade:

Was again a short(counter trend) trade with a weak PL. I think this statement itself suffices as to why it failed.

if any one can give any views/comments on the same, it is highly welcome and appreciated.

PS: Saint sir, i saw your thank on TJ on Vineet's reply to my query. I would be glad if you can help me out a little here.

Ankit, I would share my observations on the NF trades that you have posted.

Regarding the 2nd long trade, we get into the long trade, and you added at 4461 which is above the breakout bar. Now the low of this bar i.e. 4434.90 -f should have been the stop. The low of bar that you used for the stops was the bar next to break out bar. The low of 11.55 bar which was the bo bar was never reached. Now coming to the increase in risk because of adds. When we got into the trade the SL was 4406-f, but after add it gets revised to 4434.90, so we are not increasing the risk in this case.

Now regarding the 3rd short below a weak pivot, when the mkt is strongly trending in one direction as it was in the longs direction in this case, we should always look at higher TFs to check whether there is any hint of trend reversal to get into shorts. Otherwise just get out of the positions and wait for a new trade to come.

In this sense ambush is different from the flow trades, we trade only when the opportunity is there and we are not necessarily always in trade. Many time we would be just having coffee and waiting for the right opportunity to come.

Kapil

Puneet,

PUNJ LLOYD:Correct on the first trade,looking to fade that gap.Correct on 2 nd trade…..looking to get long in direction of the overall trend.That Trade 3 taken,not correct…….sideways range and therefore staying out of the trade as said by yourself is correct.Now look at the 60min chart.Short below the 217 area.That is where higher tfs say that pivots are broken.Although there is a TRADE 3 long in the last half an hour.

REL CAP:Same here,Puneet…..employ TFA.You are in the short trade in the beginning and once reversed to long,it is and add and hold till end of day.

The key is Multiple TimeFrame Analysis.

Saint

Ah,yes,Ankit……was a bit sad to hear that you had a bit of a tough day yesterday when yesterday was the move to capitalise on.Never mind,focus on the process,and the move of a lifetime happens every few days.

As regards Nifty,once again it is Time Frame Analysis that keeps us out of the jiggles………nothing much to add to Kapil's post above.Just remember our aims first……we want maximum gains,in minimum trades,with just enough position sizes.So,the focus is not just on the 5min charts and its pivots.For the 15/30min chart to even put up a bearish bar,the 5 may show it as a break of pivot………Fuse the Timeframes,and things get much easier and much more profitable with lesser trades.

Not saying that it is easy to do in the beginning……….but keep going at it,my friend.

All the best!
Saint

Thank you Kapil….Thank you Saint Sir…May God bless you all…

I will be back at EOD to post my trades…Wish this learning process can be fruitful.

Happy Trading

Sure,Ankit….no problem.

Saint

ok here are my trades again fo today. Request seniors for comments.

Trade 1:

Short 4464 placed(trigger 4462.8) Yesterday's 1410 PL was a PL on 5,15,20,30 min TF. I went short under it with SL at 1025 PH.Market moved down and reversed to hit my SL.
Saint sir, there was a hammer formation at the bottom then, with large volumes. I saw vineet cutting his positions dere. Your views please?

Trade 2(i didnt take this trade, and is not marked on chart).

Long above HOD. entered at 4505 at 1200 bar. Stoppedbadly again. I cudnt figure out where to put my stops and thus didnt take this trade.

Trade 3

Short below LOD at 1220 bar. 4451 and add 4441
The move was slanting down..PHs were way off..and with adds generated, this trade too hit SL with much biger loss.
In hindsight, was 1140 PL worth considering?with semi PH of 1235 as stop?Whatsur take on it?

Do take a look at the chart of NF and recommend improvements sir.

Happy Trading

ankit hii…my views… TRADE 1..a nice short with probablity of a retracement after nice uptrend…..taking it with half the normal qty.. because we r 60 min flow up….so more focus on the upside…

trade 2 which u didn take..shud hav been taken…i think…coz 60 min flow is up…ok 2nd stopped…. we now know it is sideways……….try something else :) :) higher tf tells the whole story…..it felt flag like…lower pl's… we dun hav to take up every trade…try to get the clear picture 1st….clear picture today was…possible sideways…

advice…try some stocks…do some eod analysis……..ambush is nt abt taking each and every trade…its ab taking the right trade..on d right side…in right stock :D…..using multiple tf's….

SAIL 21 JUL

PUNJ 21 JUL

AXIS JUL 22

DLF JUL 22

RCAP JUL 22

ALL FROM PRE MARKET ANALYSIS THREAD….

it will b either b/o or a failure :)

Hi,
Did a few blunders in either Trading or in Understanding the Axis Ambush today. Kindly fwd your views on the points mentioned:

(a) Axis 60min was Long. Opening bar took out the very prominent pivot of last day in the opening bar itself. Do we short that/the opening bar low in this case or wait for a fresh one to form? I waited for a pivot to form and then went short.

(b) 60min pivot threatened, though the filter would have kept the 60 still long. Then a small congestion/pivot forms on the 5min chart. Do we SAR there or wait for the 30/60mins to show the reversal?? I SARed there..though want to know what is the correct thing conceptually.

(c) After the sudden move close to 950…markets retraced a bit. Forms an inside pivot…which is subsequently broken. Now….do we book out here? also considering that the days highs were challenged, crossed and then the move started to fail?? Even if not that pivot, the low of 13.40 bar which showed up better vols than the previous bars? I was lost here….and didnt book…though the move thereafter was a pain for me.

Apart from these points in the charts, I have a few more conceptual doubts…..

(d) What is the scenario where we take the resting bar low as stop? Pl have look at yesterdays 13.35 bar and todays 13.45 and the 15.10 bars..though the earlier 2 cases were not preceeded by WRBs. But in general…what are the guidelines here?

(e) Ambush works because we get moves both ways the same day (in most cases) and we catch them with smallish stops. Now say the distance between our trigger and stop is 6-8 points. By adding a filter of even 1.5 or 2 both ways…we r raising our stops from say 8 to 12…and thereby getting a 2/3rd size in place. Is it pertinent to have filters here? A smaller one maynot save ( except maybe 10-15% cases) and a bigger one will ruin the position size. Is the cost of trades saved by filter not compensated by the higher position size in the trades that work? Do let me know.
Thats it for now……will ask the remaining ones later.

Thanks a lot,
Puneet

Puneet,
My understanding of ambush trade is that we take one high probability trade on breakout (the rules and setup homework is done before hand) by monitoring a select list of scripts. Then play it till the first impulse is up and then exit. Then move on to other scripts promising a good trade setup. We do not play the same script in its entirety throughout the day. Playing 5 min chart of a specific script throughout the day is a different ball game and has to be approached in a different manner.
Ambush on many scripts will be more of impulse type of trade meaning single (or at the most two trades in the same direction) trade milked to its end in its upward (or downward) swing.
My views.
Bee

a prominent pivot on 5 but not in flow with 60… 60 min trend up…so we never miss a long……dis pivot had absolutely nothing on 60 just a resting bar…we always have a retracement to form a pl in 60 min bar….which will show a short on 5 min…so careful which 1's u take….if u take….b careful abt stops…coz longs in 5 will b of nice force..

the point where today axis took support was a prominent pivot…exited over the tiny pivot marked…so below dat we could hav taken short again…which never took place……

i wud prefer WRB lows as stops….rather below the resting bars u can take off some profits…but not to loose ne position except below pivots……

Filters ..yes small filter is required…

after big moves 5 min tends to retrace back a lot….flags….low vol's….as marked….dis is place where u do gear 1 trading..and remain in position with initial risk…lukout fr nice pivots…with highs taken out…..

i'll add if i missed sumthin..

Bee,
Yes what you said is true…..ambush is not a full fledged war..its pick, chose, hit and run type of a thing. But I was taking a clue from Saint Sir's BNF thread and taking all trades here, TFA confirming.

Also…the major disadvantage of ambushing the same thing again and again is that when it gets into a range….you have no one else to bank upon. ie….following just Axis means missing out all the beautiful moves in DLF or Rel Cap or Punj etc.

Point taken fully Sir….again a big thanks for your views.

Puneet
ps: feel like composing 1 more for you today.

Neeraj,

Thanks a lot for your views…all points you put forth make sense to me. Guess the problem with me is I keep gunning for all pivots, forgetting its a different ball game altogether in Ambush. Maybe I am still stuck up with my own rudimentary views on day trading.

Look at the red lines in the chart below….these r the points where I lose my composure. I have seen many times Saint and you taking such pivots and many times avoiding them. Vols also provided no separation clause between them…as far as what I could see.

Do let me know what thumb-rules you employ here…..
Thanks a lot for the excellent reply…and yes, I will ask a few more..maybe after eod or tomorrow.

Puneet

Puneet,

Axis had a breakout on 27th, so was a good candidate for Ambush on 28th. Now since the stock was bullish, so we were actually looking for a long trade. As you mentioned whether we could have taken the 1st trade below the last days pivot low, now looking at the chart it was a pivot low on 30 min charts too. But was after a wrb. So even if that trade is taken, it is expected that its going to take support at around that wrb low. So, it was more of a scalping trade with short below 930-f with booking level ard 918, not waiting for the SAR, otherwise would not make sense.

Now talking about the long, once in trade keep the SL at prominent points like low of a breakout bar with good width (wrb but now a monster WRB). If i get a smallish pivot within the wrb range, the stops remain below the wrb. After a good breakout bar we do expect the price to retrace a bit, and if we keep on booking at all such retractments, then we will keep on missing the moves. But the last wrb that we had yesterday in axis is different ball game all together. That was a monster WRB, so after sustained upmove, many good wide bullish bars, we had this wrb and then a resting bar and we are out. Here we do not wait for the low of wrb.

Kapil

luk at the strong bullish bars compared to the bearish 1's….compare the vol's…..u wud wanna stick wid a clear cut pivot…rather than these whipping pivots……afteer a gud trend up u can take dese pivots just to exit and reenter….in overbought situations or after climax… here the VOL's are the answer…..y i didn take d SL.. VOL did nt tell nething…dat i shud b scared off in holdin my initial position…with initial SL..basically vol shud increased trend hav actually changed…but buying emerged..it was emerging this whole time….

take help of mini flow as well….mini flow pivot was same compared to d prominent pivot i had taken.. :)

exactly d same .. kapil sir…thnx.

Puneet,

Thanks and feel flattered. Suggest using TL and other techniques. We are essentially pivot players so I also faced similar difficulty. Also suggest to widen our knowledge horizon. Attempt by Saint to bring in WW is one. There is life beyond TS forum. A whole brave new world of thousands of trading systems, methodologies, philosophies and what have you.

I personally found "Trade Chart Patterns" by Suri Duddella, an eye opener and changes how we see things. Try in your free time. Flow will remain our mainstay but quest for new areas of knowledge should continue till our last day on this earth.

5 min chart play has been tackled nicely by Ajax in his KISS thread in TJ. Also by a legendary trader called Jimmie in icharts. He has a cult following ( I am also one of his fans) in his "NINE" based on Gann squares. Some leads for socially challenged and TA mad traders, hahaha.

Thanks again, Sir,

Bee

PS: Look forward to reading your literary effort and I suspect you have legions of female fan following.

some excellent reply from all seniors ..just adding my one point is : whenever i enter the position in ambush , i keep tight stoploss like puneet sir as the position size is large but that is only stop not SAR ..I can enter in the same direction again at another point looking at higher TF but i will not let it take out my profit there ..

another small point ..me always book some profit at wrb 's high .. market normally stall after wrb..

thanx

I am really touched, moved and inspired by the help all the friends r providing me here.

Thanks a lot Bee, Kapil, Neeraj and Vineet…yes will have to broaden my perspectives now….high time i do it.

Thanks a lot again…..another set of questions after mkts probably.

Thanks,
Puneet

ps: Bee Sir…how did u know abt my female following….very surprising !!!

Yes Vineet, my views exactly too:-)

Puneet - a person who can write poetry like you does have female fans. Unfortunately my mind cannot comprehend this beyond Daffodils by Wordsworth and some Kabir dohas and the hiding I used get from both English and Hindi teachers.

Bee

Hi,

1. One thing which worries most is the INITIAL stop loss. Currently I use previous visible PL-F as the stop loss for long and PH+F for short. This makes the position bit more riskier as most times it will be 15 to 20 points at risk. Do you all do the same or differently. Please advise

2. Next is add rule - I've seen SAINT Sir adds once or twice on BNF ambush, on profitable trades. Do you all following any criteria on this. Currently I do carry only my initial lots till end.

thanks
VK

SL, the way we do VK u can see in all d charts posted…its either the pivots…or WRB's or 2 big green bars back….

u trading nifty ? 15-20 pts is only abt .5 % risk…. u take the no. of lots at risk accordingly….take not more den 1 % risk on any trade….adds acc. to money management .. and over the pivots … yea again once or twice if strong trend…

Neeraj / Vineet and seniors,

I want to know that if we enter any trade in BO/BD from a pattern and if then price halts then in which criteria we should exit assuming that of a false BO/BD and where to enter in a trade of BO/BD failure and where should be it's SL…plz put some light on this

Regards

Hitesh

Hitesh , normally me put SL at BO bar's low..if it is taken out then it is BO failure for me & i am very fond of pattern failures ..

The entry in BO failure is below the BO bar & sl is high of that BO bar ..

now look at today's kotak bank's 5 min chart ..the 10.15 bar try to brakeout from consolidation & fade out ..me enter short at brake of its low with sl at its high & see where it gone …

hope it helps ….

Nice explanation Vineet. Another doubt is cleared. thanks

VK

Re: Ambush Charts 2
neeraj_h 29 Jul 2009, 22:18 +05.500
SL, the way we do VK u can see in all d charts posted…its either the pivots…or WRB's or 2 big green bars back….

u trading nifty ? 15-20 pts is only abt .5 % risk…. u take the no. of lots at risk accordingly….take not more den 1 % risk on any trade….adds acc. to money management .. and over the pivots … yea again once or twice if strong trend…

thanks Neeraj.. So then no worries as I am following exactly as you all. Great relief..

VK

Very nice explanation Vineet……..a big doubt is cleared…….thanks….

Friends.. my initial attempts at picking stocks for Ambush. It might be a little off the mark. So pls bear with the posts.

And reply with criticisms/ways one can improving stock selection.

Number 1: DLF…

It is sitting smartly on a trendline. Therefore, I am interesting in the hourly PH break in which case it will resume its upward move. It could be strong as TLs are good supports.

OR

If its PL breaks. TL breaks are sometimes pretty strong.. so lets see.

The image:

LITL lanco

30 july

nice jamit …. :)

put it in pre-market analysis…..here we put the charts post market abt how we ambushed…..

KOTAK BANK 4 AUG

Axis 2rd and 4th July 09
Green = Long
Red = short
Black = Exit….

Long over 4647 - Tgt as mentioned (Got pulled in a meeting, had moved SL to 4653
Long over 4670 - Closed 4703 (ICICI D site went down :(

Total Pts: 37

AMAIZING trade bonny…. :)

Thanks Neeraj. Finally gathered enough courage to execute my first trade thanks to all you superb guys here.

bonny…wishing u many many more trades…. :) and when u loose 1 trade…just dun gv up…just gather ur courage again and say … i will take 20 more trades…and try to improve my mistakes…and take correct decisions… :) MM….will help u do dis … and get ur doubts cleared dere nd den whenever u hav some…. great sucess lies ahead if u just b a simpleton…and follow ur plan..

KOTAK ROCKS THE HOUSE AGAIN…..

5 AUG

Total Pts: -17

Was a bit too late to catch the rectangle breakdown.

Good day today from learning and self control perspective.
1. Rectangle formation - Entry on breakdown
2. Price range, no action
3. Forgot to add filter to the SL. Got out at a fraction of a paise
4. Rectangle - Entry on breakdown. Close EOD

Points: 29

Hello friends…..
Here are some words of wisdom that neeraj_h shared with me in PM.
posting them here with his kind permission so that could be helpful for others.

WELL IF TREND IS LONG…IN 60 MIN…..U DUN TRADE THE SHORT SIDE….U TAKE LONG…WHEN U GET A NICE PLAY……U HAV TO LOOK WHAT OTHER STOCKS R DOING……LIKE I HAV 12 CHARTS….I KNOW WHEN A MOVE IS LUL….AND WWHEN SUM STOCKS ARE GOING LONG…SO U TAKE ACCORDINGLY…….TO TAKE COUNTER TRADES AGAINST 60 MIN TRENDS….I AGAIN LOOK AT MANY STOCKS….IF VOL SELLING COMING..I PIK BES 1 TO SHORT….AND GO COUNTER……….EXPERIENCE BUDDY…SCREEN EXPERIENCE…U WILL GET IT BY TIME……

TAKE LESS RISK….. .5% TO 1 % MAX…ON ANY GIVEN TRADE……MOVE TO BE…TAKE OTHERS…….THE MORE U R RIGHT THE MORE CHANCES OF MAKING MONEY…..TRAIL SL…….TO BE .. AND WORRY ABT LOSSES……. IF U R ON RIGHT SIDE..PROFITS WILL TAKE CARE OF THEMSELVES…….DO EOD ANALYSIS…..PRE MARKET AND POST MARKET….MAINTAIN A BOOK OF URS…WRITE DOWN MISTAKES….IT WILL HELP U

its just the 12 stocks…dat gives me idea where mkt is gng………..dere r slow times….dere r fast times…with big vol………..dere is dis banking or reality breaking down…..and 1 stock holding up………things like dese…which u will develop with screen experience…..where u hav to take a trade u'll know……counter i mean….and as always u take counter or not…u always hav pre-market analysis on ur side…abt which r hottest 1's to trade towards direction…u miss counter no problem….big or small….but u never miss a trade towards and with 60 min flow …..coz flow will b strong….breakouts or breakdowns all occur with 60 min flow……. baaki u knw..all the eg's i hav posted in ambush threads….go thru dem…..and please do look at all the saint sir's posts……and luk dem in chart……..u will really get to see what u need to see…..i hav developed myself by luking in chart what he is watching……

1. Regular gap trading - Short below 5 min candle
2. Closed at the pivot. Was thinking of taking the other lower pivot, but still unsure of where to draw lines for profit taking.
3. Short - What was I thinking? The 10, 30 and 60min was down and wanted to get in an early short!! Lesson learnt. Wait for pivot break
4. Long over pivot break
5. Wedge formation broken - exit
6. 10 min was desc tri and lower pivot breakdown but the risk was high so put SL at the previous high which was arbritary..was stopped out. Sad since I gave in to fear and lost on a good opportunity.

Overall: Mixed day, mixed reactions.

Points: 71